At the moment, we are living through a period in the world of sport in which, without any tangible crisis marking a turning point, it is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain the feeling that things are still working the way they did a few years ago. What follows is an attempt to reflect on global uncertainty, not focusing on any specific area but rather trying to describe, in general terms, the current state of this ‘individual’ called sport in 2026.

Right now, changes are happening quietly, independently, and perhaps they should be described as ‘evolutionary’. Or perhaps not. The point is that federations have started to operate with more room for manoeuvre than usual, applying their own criteria in matters that were previously assumed to be shared, while the International Olympic Committee tries to maintain a certain global coherence, even if it is not always clear how far it can enforce it. Meanwhile, governments have stopped simply observing and have understood that sport is also a space where decisions directly affect them.

At the same time, the Court of Arbitration for Sport is no longer just the place to turn to when everything else fails. It is present from the outset, even when there is no open conflict yet. As if everyone assumes that, at some point, someone will take the discussion there… Perhaps this reflects a broader trend in society and political leadership, where it is often difficult to bring positions closer together and easier for each side to remain entrenched in its own interests without moving an inch.

The IOC’s quiet tension

According to what SportsIn has learned, the Olympic environment is where this quiet tension is most visible. Probably because it is the only space where everything happens at once: the host country with its own framework, the IOC trying to sustain a global logic, and the federations applying criteria that do not always align with each other. For years, this coexistence has worked without major issues. Now it seems to be getting a little more complicated. And what may come with Los Angeles 2028, if Donald Trump remains at the forefront… it remains to be seen whether things will return to their natural course.

The Los Angeles Games will not change the system on their own, but they will force all these elements to operate at the same time. And in those situations, differences tend to stop being manageable. It is not that sport has not had conflicts before. It always has. The difference now is that it is no longer clear under which framework those conflicts would be resolved. And when that happens, what emerges is not just conflict, but something more difficult to manage: uncertainty. Who is really in charge — the IOC, Donald Trump, or each federation within its own sport?

What has not yet happened

At some point, that uncertainty will have to take a more concrete form. Not through a major reform or a global agreement, but through something much more specific: a case, a decision that forces a choice between two ways of interpreting the same rules (as has presumably happened in the case of the biological passport in women’s competitions). And when that happens, there will likely be very little room left for interpretation. It could arise in relation to Russia and Ukraine, Iran, or even a new issue that we have not yet seen coming.

Until then, everything will continue to appear relatively calm. As if nothing were happening…