The 2026 World Cup comes with an additional warning for the organisation of international football. The tournament in the United States, Mexico and Canada will be the first with 48 teams and 104 matches, but it also stands as a test of how far extreme heat can shape the planning of major competitions. The issue goes beyond a single edition: it affects the traditional June and July calendar, the precedent of Qatar 2022, the 2030 World Cup in Spain, Portugal and Morocco and, above all, the future tournament in Saudi Arabia in 2034.
The warning follows an analysis by World Weather Attribution, reported by Reuters, which found that around a quarter of matches at the 2026 World Cup could be played in conditions above the safety limits recommended by FIFPRO. The study also estimates that around five matches could take place in conditions considered unsafe, in which the global players’ union recommends considering postponement, an assessment that again places the health of players, referees, workers and fans within the planning of the tournament.
Heat as a limit for the traditional calendar
The report uses the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature -WBGT- index, which combines temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind to measure heat stress. The reference matters because risk does not depend only on the temperature shown on a thermometer: a venue with high humidity can create more demanding conditions for the body than another with higher temperatures but a drier atmosphere. FIFPRO recommends cooling measures when that index exceeds 26 degrees and raises the possibility of postponing matches from 28.
FIFA says it has worked on specific planning for 2026, with three-minute hydration breaks in each half, cooling infrastructure, adapted work-rest cycles and medical teams prepared according to real-time conditions at each venue. “FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of players, referees, fans, volunteers and staff,” the governing body told Reuters.
The Qatar precedent: moving the World Cup also comes at a cost
Qatar 2022 already showed that FIFA can move a World Cup when the climate makes the traditional window unworkable. The tournament was played in November and December to avoid the Gulf summer, a decision that reduced direct exposure to extreme heat and broke for the first time with the competition’s usual June and July slot. That edition confirmed that the calendar is not untouchable, but also that any change of dates has consequences for the wider football ecosystem.
The solution, however, was not neutral. The winter World Cup compressed the club calendar, reduced preparation and recovery periods and forced the European season to adapt to a tournament placed in the middle of the campaign. It was not an especially comfortable formula for clubs or players either, who have generally been wary of a model that disrupts sporting routines, physical planning, commercial windows and television business. Qatar solved part of the climate problem, but shifted part of the cost onto the calendar.
From Spain, Portugal and Morocco to Saudi Arabia
The 2030 World Cup, organised by Spain, Portugal and Morocco, does not present the same climate scenario as Saudi Arabia, but it is not outside the discussion either. If it keeps the usual window, some venues in southern Europe and North Africa could be exposed to high temperatures in June and July, with many time slots close to 40 degrees, forcing organisers to review kick-off times, training areas, travel, fan zones, medical protocols and working conditions for volunteers and operational staff. The debate, therefore, is no longer limited to Gulf countries, but also reaches regions traditionally integrated into the summer calendar.
Saudi Arabia 2034 stands as the major unresolved test. Because of its climate, staging the tournament in summer would be far more complex than in most 2030 venues, and the experience of Qatar suggests that FIFA will have to choose between expanding stadium cooling, relying on night-time kick-offs, tightening heat protocols or again studying a change of window. The 2026 report therefore turns heat into a central variable for the future of the World Cup and leaves open an increasingly difficult question: whether climate change has already begun to change the date of football’s biggest tournament too.
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