The global sports economy could face annual losses of up to 517 billion dollars by 2030 if the decline in sports participation is not reversed, according to the report Sports for People and Planet, published by the World Economic Forum. The document warns that the combined impact of physical inactivity and other structural factors could push those losses to 1.6 trillion dollars a year by 2050, directly affecting sector revenues.
The report places this risk at the centre of the sport economic model, which currently generates around 2.3 trillion dollars annually worldwide and maintains forecasts of sustained growth over the coming decades. However, falling participation levels are shrinking the base of consumers, fans and users that underpins revenue linked to events, tourism, equipment and sports services.
Physical inactivity as a brake on sports growth
The World Economic Forum identifies physical inactivity as a structural constraint on demand. Nearly one third of the global adult population does not meet minimum physical activity recommendations, while among young people the figure rises to as much as 80%, based on aggregated data from international organisations. The global inactivity rate has increased from 26% in 2010 to 31% in 2022, with projections placing it at 35% by 2030.
This trend translates into a direct reduction in sport’s potential market. The report estimates that, if current trajectories persist, the number of physically active people could fall up to 800 million below initial projections, limiting the growth of grassroots sport and weakening the future base of consumers and audiences that sustain the sports economy.
Young people, women and people with disabilities: the most affected groups
Lower levels of sports participation among young people represent one of the main medium- and long-term risk factors. The report highlights that low physical activity in early life reduces future involvement in competitions, clubs and organised structures, with a direct impact on grassroots sport development and the creation of new audiences.
Participation gaps also significantly affect women and people with disabilities. According to the report, women account for only 37% of people who practise sport in the European Union, 40% in the United States and 45% in Canada. For people with disabilities, the likelihood of inactivity is twice as high, driven by barriers such as limited access to facilities, inadequate transport and a lack of structured participation opportunities.
The healthcare cost of declining sports participation
The impact of physical inactivity extends beyond sport itself. The report estimates that between 2020 and 2030 healthcare systems could face costs of close to 300 billion dollars linked to diseases associated with insufficient physical activity, in a context where preventive spending remains limited.
Across the main G20 economies, less than 6% of public healthcare expenditure is allocated to preventive measures, including the promotion of physical activity. This situation increases pressure on healthcare systems and reduces the scope for sport to act as a tool for well-being and social cohesion, while also raising economic risks for sectors most dependent on active participation.
The report identifies sports tourism, sporting goods retail and participatory sport as the areas most exposed to this trend, as they depend directly on an active population and account for a significant share of the projected growth of the sports economy in the coming years.
